Year End 2020

A year of sorrow is soon ending, goodbye to 2020,
Miss you we will not, you’ve brought bad news aplenty.
As we struggle towards yearend, of better days we are desirous,
We won’t so soon forget, this grim year of coronavirus.
Forevermore our lives have changed, so too our daily tasks,
As we stare into a Zoom, and don our cotton masks.
Exposed this year it has, our lack of ready for pandemic,
Deep divisions in our society, and racism that’s systemic.
Before we turn the page, let’s take some time just to reflect,
And review all that’s transpired, each event we will dissect.

It snuck up on us slowly, and then with a sudden quickness,
Across the globe it spread, this horrid covid sickness.
Our closeness was our enemy, human bonds became our sins,
From a bat or from a lab, we’ll never know its origins.
By spring we were in lockdown, our behavior somewhat manic,
We disinfected every package, and hoarded TP in panic.
Ventilators, PPE, and testing, all in desperate short supply,
States pitted against each other, as we all wondered why.
Days at home stretched into months, and we all became quite grouchy,
We binge watched Tiger King, and grew fond of Doctor Fauci.

Spirits lifted with the temperature, and gatherings moved outside,
Some things began reopening, as infections did subside.
While the NBA prepared to bubble, to keep the spread at bay,
Any peace was quickly shattered, on a fateful day in May.
As George Floyd lay upon the street, handcuffed for all to see,
On his neck for nine long minutes, a cop pressed down his knee.
As he lay there slowly dying, and said he couldn’t breathe,
The footage quickly spread, and the nation began to seethe.
Protests raged across the country, people marching in solidarity,
In support of Black Lives Matter, and against police brutality.

Against this wretched backdrop, we had a strange election,
From two granddads in their seventies, we were making a selection.
The vast disparity between them, didn’t take too much explaining,
Quite stark even the difference, in their own styles of campaigning.
As the ballots all were counted, the gap began to widen,
The result was soon revealed, as the swing states broke for Biden.
To the embarrassment of most, Trump has not gracefully conceded,
And with a melting Giuliani, with claims of fraud he has proceeded.
Mr. President it’s over, your lame duck days are numbered,
Of your presence in the White House, we’ll soon be unencumbered.

This year we’ve lost so many, the majority of them nameless,
Over a million and a half from covid, victims that are blameless.
Many legends too were taken, some lives just cut too short,
Kobe Bryant the black mamba, who ruled the basketball court.
Naya Rivera brightly shined, in the glow of glee club lights,
The Honorable RBG, paved the way for women’s rights.
In the Golden Age of cinema, Kirk Douglas was always bold,
Kenny Rogers you did teach us, when to hold and when to fold.
The smiling Regis Philbin, forget you we will never,
The Black Panther Chadwick Boseman, RIP in Wakanda forever.

Don Shula’s undefeated season, no team has ever done the same,
Another feat no one’s repeated, Don Larsen’s World Series perfect game.
We lost other athletic greats, who lit up the big scoreboard,
Maradona and Tom Seaver, Lou Brock and Whitey Ford.
Jack Welch had all the answers, as 20 year boss man of GE,
Alex Trebek took all the questions, as 36 year host of Jeopardy.
Eddie Van Halen and Little Richard, Hall of Famers for their endeavors,
Civil rights leaders from the south, John Lewis and Charles Evers.
Sean Connery the great Scotsman, aka British special agent Bond,
May you continue your heroics, out in the great beyond.

Like everything this year, financial markets too were nuts,
You stood to make big money, but you had to have some guts.
We sold off hard in Feb and March, with all risk assets in the red,
Until we got some major stimulus, from both Congress and the Fed.
Oil futures traded negative, as lockdowns sapped demand,
And with a Saudi/Russia feud, global supply it did expand.
Growth stocks resurged anew, IPOs staged a huge comeback,
A lucky few have been invited, to the raucous party of the SPAC.
As the year draws to a close, a strong bull market is in session,
Not many would have guessed it, in the depths of this year’s recession.

So now we’re in December, and covid cases are exploding,
Vaccines are being rolled out, but the long dark winter is foreboding.
Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna, and many others are quite close,
Some need a cold supply chain, and require a double dose.
New things this year we’ve learned, like how a curve is exponential,
We know now what it means, for a worker to really be essential.
So much this year’s been tragic, as a nation we’ve been tested,
But together we will triumph, by this virus we will not be bested.
Happy holidays to all, do your best some cheer to spread,
I tell you with conviction, better days lie not far ahead.

Year End 2019

Twenty nineteen is now ending, goodbye to the year and the decade,
Let's look back and then move forward, please do not be afraid.
As always in a year, there's been bad and there's been good,
We'll examine both below, we'll take a look under the hood.
The Patriots won again, they now have six Super Bowls,
This season may be different, their offense appears to have some holes.
We had some first time winners, that started brand new chapters,
The Nationals in DC, in Canada the Toronto Raptors.
In soccer the US women, took the win over in France,
UVA in college hoops, took the win in the big dance.

Many legends we have lost, great legacies they did bestow,
Supreme Court justice John Paul Stevens, the billionaire Ross Perot.
Fashion designer Karl Lagerfeld, actress and singer Doris Day,
JuiceWRLD the emo rapper, legendary architect IM Pei.
Peter Mayhew played Chewbacca, Cameron Boyce one of Disney's stars,
Eddie Money's got tickets to paradise, Ric Ocasek headlined the Cars.
Lee Iacocca rescued Chrysler, Gloria Vanderbilt's blue jeans were so tight,
Paul Volcker tamed inflation, Toni Morrison sure could write.
More shocking deaths emerged, fighting Thanos in Endgame,
Without Ironman and Black Widow, the Avengers won't be the same.

In Maduro’s Venezuela, things have really gone downhill,
A catastrophic dam break, in neighboring Brazil.
A crash in Ethiopia, revealing flaws for Boeing’s Max,
Mosque shootings in New Zealand, in Sri Lanka church attacks.
A mass shooting in El Paso, hours later a Dayton copy,
A Mormon massacre in Mexico, in the DR they shot Big Papi.
A tragic dive boat fire, California homes destroyed by flame,
The rainforest too is burning, another fire wrecked Notre Dame.
To know the climate’s not like the past, you don’t have to be a historian,
Just look at the Venice flooding, or the wreckage left by Dorian.

Trump and Kim Jong Un, becoming buddies seemingly,
Met up in Vietnam, then crossed Korea’s DMZ.
Major protests in Hong Kong, much to China’s consternation,
Riots too in Chile, over subway fare inflation.
Drone attacks on Saudi oil, Iran allegedly the source,
Al-Baghdadi in a tunnel, taken out by Delta Force.
Elections there were many, Zelensky in Ukraine,
Who then was asked to play a role, in an American campaign.
Modi’s BJP in India, won in a significant landslide,
As did Johnson in old England, where Brexit will not be denied.

The Dems too are campaigning, and grandstanding up on stage,
They're shaking all their fists, some are filled with lots of rage.
If you don't know whom to back, ask your daddy or your mommy,
There's the extremist Lizzie Warren, or Bernie the old commie.
After watching them debate, it's hard to feel inspired,
Andy Yang has decent energy, Joey Biden's looking tired.
Mayor Pete is quite articulate, he's one of two Rhodes scholars,
The other's Cory Booker, though he's behind in campaign dollars.
Billionaires Steyer and Bloomberg, have joined the magic quest,
Along with Klobuchar and Gabbard, they're a bit of a snooze fest.

In the markets things were rosy, as equities screamed higher,
For every stupid seller, there was an even dumber buyer.
Despite a trade war and more tariffs, and a brief inversion in the curve,
Jay Powell had your back, and gave the bulls plenty of nerve.
But not so unicorn IPOs, which were pretty much a bust,
And so in private valuations, engendering distrust.
Uber, Lyft, and Slack all traded lower, and then there was WeWork,
Where Masa bailed out Neumann, who ran off with billions and a smirk.
Crude oil rallied strongly, the bitcoin almost had a double,
Not so the bonds of Argentina, where an election caused some trouble.

So wrap up your year end business, wrap up the presents too,
Perhaps a baby Yoda, or some Air Pods for your crew.
Get away from all the noise, go find a respite on some beach,
Whichever side you’re on, of the motion to impeach.
In the coming vote next year, we may change the President’s name,
But we all should be prepared, that it may remain the same.
Let’s resolve to be more civil, on all of us rests this onus,
Let’s worry more about each other, than the size of this year’s bonus.
Happy New Year to you all, we’ve made it through another year,
Be good to those around you, and spread some holiday cheer.

Year End 2018

Two thousand and eighteen, come and gone so fast,

Turn the page in a few weeks, put it firmly in the past.

The days are growing shorter, the nights are getting colder,

As fall turns into winter, another year we all are older.

Put your politics aside, for a moment let’s be civil,

If you watch CNN or Fox, forget about all that drivel.

To this year’s beginning, let’s re-wind back the clock,

We’ll look at it holistically, not on a basis that’s ad hoc.

News there was aplenty, stories of people very brave,

A Thai soccer team and coach, rescued from a flooded cave.

Winter in PyeongChang, we saw the Olympic flame ignited,

And the South and North Koreans, marching with one flag united.

A Windsor Castle wedding, how those British royals sparkle,

The Duke and Duchess of Sussex, Prince Harry and Meghan Markle.

At his confirmation hearings, Kavanaugh faced some strong objections,

The Dems took back the House, in November’s midterm elections.

Farewell to Steven Hawking, Godspeed to John McCain,

Respect to Aretha Franklin, good eats to Anthony Bourdain.

The rich and famous lifestyles, did show us Robin Leach,

The evangelist Billy Graham, he sure knew how to preach.

George and Barbara Bush, a classy couple he and she,

A fond goodbye to Burt Reynolds, so long now to Stan Lee.

The most gruesome death this year, Khashoggi we do remember,

For whom a hit squad was dispatched, to murder and dismember.

A fourth term coronation for Putin, Xi’s now emperor for life,

Genocide in Burma, in Syria endless strife.

A June summit down in Singapore, Trump and Kim Jong-Un,

Raising hopes for a de-nuking, assuming you trust that pudgy goon.

A duck boat disaster in July, California fires in a recurring cycle,

Tragedies in Florida, the Parkland shooting and Hurricane Michael.

A former Russian spy in England, poisoned but still alive,

Great progress down in Saudi, where the women now can drive.

A caravan of migrants, heading northward towards the border,

So Trump dispatched the troops, vowing to keep the law and order.

China’s modifying the genes of babies, opening Pandora’s box,

In Boston they’re still cheering, the triumph of their Red Sox.

The Eagles flew and flew, and seized a rare victory dance,

At the World Cup in Russia, the trophy went to France.

The Warriors won in four, beating Cleveland in a hurry,

Even mighty LeBron was no match, for Durant and Curry.

Mueller’s investigation moves apace, slowly tightening the noose,

Seems he’s angling for bigger fish, and unwilling to call a truce.

White House turnover continues, it’s stormy near the throne,

Hope Hicks resigned in Feb, followed in March by Gary Cohn.

Rex Tillerson was fired, these shifts seem almost daily,

McCabe and McMaster, and don’t forget about Nikki Haley.

We’re told it’s no big deal, please don’t get the wrong impressions,

John Kelly’s out as well, following in the footsteps of Jeff Sessions.

This year in the markets, to almost nowhere could you flee,

It mattered not if you were in, fixed income, gold, or equity.

Two issues were to blame, which caused all this bloodshed,

One was the Chinese tariffs, the other was the Fed.

Two stocks were worth a trillion, the Amazon and the Apple,

For redemption from that greed, we’re now praying in the chapel.

Many charts are off the peak, so much it makes you holler,

The only things that have gone up, are volatility and the dollar.

So what awaits us all next year, in this uncertain future,

How to stop this sudden bleeding, and give our wounds a suture?

Perhaps reset your expectations, to a lower notch than outright brash,

It’s not time for crazy leverage, you’re not a fool to hold some cash.

The QE is unwinding, there’s no prior roadmap for this journey,

Before it’s over rest assured, some will be rolled out on a gurney.

Prepare to take more off the table, if risk assets make another rally,

You’ll be glad you did before, this pullback makes its grand finale.

But enough with gloom and doom, in this annual search for clarity,

Let’s count our many blessings, in this season of hope and charity.

If your tower’s Trump or made of ivory, let’s stop the nasty tweets,

And work to bridge our differences, and share some holiday treats.

Though we disagree quite often, consensus we must reach,

Whether you’re in the camp of one more term, or the one of let’s impeach.

Let’s take a year end break, from trade wars and yield curve kinks.

Look up now from your smartphone, and enjoy some New Year’s drinks.

Year End 2017

Another year is ending, seventeen is in the books,

Before moving to the passing lane, let’s take some rearview looks.

Let’s review who’s made the news, every hero and every chump,

And take stock of where we are, a year into the reign of Trump.

We’ve had some ups and downs, of some things we are not proud,

Like the challenge some had measuring, the tiny inauguration crowd.

With my rhymes now please bear with me, your patience I do beseech,

Sit back now and relax, like Christie on a shut down beach.

The eclipse was pretty awesome, moving from northwest down to southeast,

Love or hate that guy Tom Brady, that Super Bowl comeback was pretty beast.

Sexual misconduct allegations, men abusing positions of power,

Weinstein, Franken, O’Reilly, Moore, Rose, Spacey, and Lauer.

Catalonia voted for secession, alas the Spaniards took it back,

Too bad Equifax can’t do that, with your personal info lost in the hack.

The women marched on Washington, with quite a large turnout,

The Astros won in seven, the Warriors won in a rout.

Bad news we had aplenty, always on terror high alert,

Trucks driving into people, bombs at a Manchester concert.

Migrants fleeing into Europe, refugees pouring out of Burma,

Hurricanes smashing the Carribean, Maria, Harvey, Nate and Irma.

Maduro in Venezuela, Kim Jong-Un and other kooks,

Destroying their own countries, or hell bent on having nukes.

Destruction in Aleppo, a double California fire outbreak,

Mass shootings in Vegas and Texas, a Mexican earthquake.

Goodbye we said to many, without them empty we may feel,

Chuck Berry rolled over Beethoven, Monte Hall taught us how to make a deal.

David Cassidy and Jerry Lewis, of you we were quite fond,

Hugh Hefner was our playboy, Roger Moore was our James Bond.

Sam Shephard and Tom Petty, Lil Peep and Fats Domino.

The psychopath Charles Manson, no one’s sad to see him go.

The diplomat Zbigniew Brzezinski, we never could pronounce your name,

The chancellor Helmut Kohl, reuniting Germany brought you fame.

The first year of the administration, an interesting one it’s been,

Few legislative victories, but a guilty plea from Flynn.

The Russia thing’s a mess, always another strange plot twist,

Manafort, Gates, and Papadopolous, on Mueller’s naughty list.

Price, Preibus and Steve Bannon, not one a year did survive,

Scaramucci had his day, well to be accurate he lasted five.

Comey from his post ejected, for excessive investigatory intervening,

Before resigning I wish that Spicer, had explained covfefe’s meaning.

Our country is divided, the left against the right,

Every issue that’s debated, ends up a bitter fight.

All you nutty fringe extremists, on both sides of the aisle,

Put your country before your party, and stop being so hostile.

Enough with the shouting and the violence, don’t get all up in my grill,

Please stop all of this chaos, we don’t want another Charlottesville.

Our country isn’t perfect, we have many problems that do displease,

But to the NFL you’ve made your point, it’s time to get up off your knees.

The markets have been bullish, with synchronized global growth,

To short every little vol spike, we all have now taken an oath.

Credit spreads have tightened, the momentum trade has been astounding,

US short rates have moved higher, dollar weakness has been confounding.

The yield curve it has flattened, emerging markets all have rallied,

Large cap growth stocks are on top, a winning year they’ve tallied.

But the winner of them all, has been the bitcoin and the crypto,

They’ve sprinted ever higher, this is no walk, or jog, or tiptoe.

So the New Year is upon us, it’s getting really close,

Please put down all those opioids, you don’t need another dose.

In eighteen please stay alert, I don’t think it will be boring,

Vol may just make a comeback, you don’t want to be caught snoring.

A new Fed chair’s taking charge, as the balance sheet is shrinking,

Of buying every dip, you may want to do some fast rethinking.

With your gains this holiday season, be generous and don’t be chintzy,

Be charitable with your winnings, and don’t spend $450 million on a da Vinci.

Year End 2016

Twenty and sixteen, over in a flash,

Remembered it will be, for the Trump and Clinton clash.

To follow up Obama, on the presidential throne,

Hillary or the Donald, a poorer choice we've never known.

The one a scheming liberal, always above the law,

The other an inflated ego, looking at himself with awe.

She had more votes by millions, and allegedly more knowledge,

With deplorables in his corner, he took the electoral college.

This year we had some horrors, all of them causing fright,

Such as the Zika virus, spread by a mosquito bite.

Bombings in Brussels, Belgium, a crazed driver in Nice, France,

Fanatics bent on killing, innocent victims of circumstance.

In Oakland a warehouse fire, where 36 did die,

In Orlando a nightclub shooting, that leaves you asking why?

In Aleppo death and carnage, by Assad a true barbarian,

If you don’t know where that is, don’t ask a libertarian.

In sports we had nice action, led by a guy named Manning,

Who then retired at the top, leaving Newton also ran-ning.

Always much excitement, in the world of college ball,

Villanova at the buzzer, leaving Carolina feeling small.

LeBron brought it home in Cleveland, after going down three to one,

Despite a Warrior record season, 88 games they won.

In Chicago they're still celebrating, the kids, the wives, and hubbies,

After a century long hiatus, the victory of their Cubbies.

Again we lost some great ones, some women and some men,

Mrs. Brady Florence Henderson, the astronaut John Glenn.

Gene Wilder and David Bowie, the word genius they evince,

The doves are all still crying, at the sudden loss of Prince.

Muhammad Ali was the greatest, in a fight no one was calmer,

He mixed lemonade and tea, the golf king Arnold Palmer.

Fidel Castro was a menace, a commie tyrant like no other,

In Cuba they’re still suffering, in the shackles of the brother.

In the markets things were choppy, until the election gave direction,

Many hedge funds lost real money, buying useless put protection.

In long/short returns were tough, being down or flat the norm,

As the small caps and the value, did strongly outperform.

Passive flows keep rising, bringing higher correlation,

From bonds to stocks some say, we’re in a generational rotation.

Uncertain is the future, try as we might to see it squinting,

The Fed too knows not what’s coming, or the harms of money printing.

Populism’s all the rage, as people 'round the world revolt,

The status quo's being upended, at the speed of Phelps and Bolt.

Paul Revere said the Brits were coming, from the EU now they're leaving,

For the European experiment, it may be time to start the grieving.

The Bushes and the Clintons, their time it has now passed,

America wants change, in its political crew and cast.

And what about Chris Christie, who drove his career off of a bridge,

He’s somewhere back in Jersey, seeking solace in his fridge.

So the election is now over, though the tweets are just beginning,

He says he'll make us great again, and that we’ll all get used to winning.

Don't lose much sleep for Hillary, she won't suffer from starvation,

She's saved up quite a nest egg, in that dirty Bill & Hill Foundation.

After eight years of his lectures, we won't much Obama miss,

As we head into a world, of pure Republican bliss.

In this year's holiday season, please don't be a Scrooge,

Let's pray for one another, and for this Trump thing to be huge.

Year End 2015

Goodbye to twenty fifteen, hello to fifteen plus one,

I hope your year’s been good, as it’s all but said and done.

Some ups and downs we’ve had, we’ve taken a bruise and bump,

We’ve heard some stupid stuff, almost all of it from Trump.

How will this year be written? When historians look back,

It will likely be remembered, as the year of the terror attack.

Another likely legacy, when scholars about the year will ask,

Is that even the liberals conceded, that Obama wasn’t up to the task.

There was much bad news this year, and more than just one crisis,

Many of them caused, by the lunatics called ISIS.

Our hearts go out to all, our friends in Paris, France,

Attacked twice in the past year, by crazies in a suicide trance.

Plane crashes too we saw, over the Sinai a Russian jet,

A deranged pilot over the French Alps, stranger than that it doesn't get.

Mass shootings almost every week, on this side of the Atlantic,

Jihad in San Bernardino, it leaves you feeling frantic.

Goodbye to Yogi Berra, so much we learned from thee,

As we look out towards the future, it sure ain’t what it used to be.

We’ll miss you Leonard Nimoy, you went where no man went before,

May we all live long and prosper, as we continue to explore.

Your voices will live on, Ben E. and BB King,

You sure could play the R&B, and boy could you guys sing.

Omar Sharif and Kirk Kerkorian, John Nash and Lee Kuan Yew,

You left your mark on this world, as very few can do.

The markets all were tough, making everyone feel pissy,

It started right in January, with the revaluation of the Swissie.

By springtime we had thawed, though commodities kept sneezing,

The risk appetite was whetted, with Draghi’s quantitative easing.

Though early summer felt nice, by August we were back on our knees,

As we saw crude oil break forty, and a devaluation from the Chinese.

All the while the Fed kept threatening, to give the rates a raise,

We’ll see if their recent boost, will bring an end to this malaise.

Growth destroyed the value, as the FANGs all did rerate,

Labor force participation and Brady’s footballs, sadly did deflate.

Junk amongst your junk bonds?  It’s enough to cause a panic,

E.coli in your burrito? It’s not even safe to eat organic.

A nukes deal with Iran, with Cuba diplomatic relations,

Some places to consider, for your next spring break vacations. 

Josh Duggar and Bill Cosby, two sickos down in flames,

Brian Williams and his stories, all based on bogus claims.

Prepare yourself for next year, it’s really not far in the future,

If your portfolio is bleeding, raising cash could be a suture.

You can blame any losses on the Fed, or blame it on bad karma,

You can blame it on dispersion, or just blame Valeant Pharma.

Making choices can be tough, with spouses and with money,

It’s all about the tradeoffs, like choosing sad or funny.

You can’t always win in life, whether it’s investing or badminton,

Choices can be no win situations, as in choosing Trump or Clinton.

Year End 2014

2014 slipping by, another year to be retired,

Let’s review what we have seen, what really has transpired.

The year started out so cold, we learned a phrase called polar vortex,

That chilled us to our bones, and brain froze our frontal cortex.

Another chilling event, was the ebola epidemic,

Concerns about its spread, were more than merely academic.

Democrats took a beating, in this year’s mid-term elections,

As the right wing took the Senate, handing incumbents their ejections.

Give me Crimea for an appetizer, said the grabby Vladimir Putin,

For dessert some eastern Ukraine, as I continue with my lootin’.

Shooting down a Malaysian plane, was clearly this year’s biggest error,

While Islamic State emerged, as this year’s biggest terror.

Boko Haram was close behind, with their heinous kidnap attack,

Many have now forgotten, that the girls have still not been brought back.

A Pakistani school, another of this year’s horror scenes,

Resulting in the death, of a hundred innocent teens.

Farewell we said to others, their absence gives us shivers,

The world is laughing less, without our friend Joan Rivers.

We miss you Robin Williams, hysterical and looney,

Goodbye to Shirley Temple, goodbye to Mickey Rooney.

Godspeed to Maya Angelou, her poetry so sublime,

Casey Kasem left us too, up the charts he made us climb.

Philip Seymour Hoffman, each role played with finesse,

Oscar de la Renta, who showed us how to dress.

The big story in the markets, was the mighty US dollar,

If you were long against the Ruble, you’re a wealthy FX scholar.

The BOJ continued easing, causing the Yen to take a tumble,

Though in the end the Abenomics, may yet fall apart and crumble.

The Fed wrapped up the taper, though the ten year rate went lower,

As the expansion and inflation, proceeded to grow slower.

Two nasty falls from grace, that took most by surprise,

Crude oil and the bond king, both well off of their highs.

Meanwhile in the stocks, M&A was all the rage,

With healthcare deal inversions, taking center stage.

Actavis snatched up Allergan, Medtronic bought Covidien,

All boosting banker bonuses, by a couple of hundred million.

Google built a Nest, Suntory swallowed Beam,

Apple boogied to the Beats, Ballmer bought the LA team.

Facebook said What’sApp?, Comcast hooked up with Time Warner,

Halliburton took Baker Hughes, DirecTV’s in Ma Bell’s corner.

If you missed the market rally, if you took a hit on Shire,

Stay calm and please don’t panic, things are not so very dire.

If your returns are flat or down, though this makes you quite frustrated,

Take solace in the fact, your returns are not correlated.

Look at the bigger picture, even if your performance makes you vomit,

The European NASA, put a spacecraft on a comet.

The holidays are here, may the New Year bring you luck,

Things are looking up already, Obama’s a lame duck.

Year End 2013

Two thousand and thirteen, coming quickly to a close, 

Events that have transpired, let us here expose.
Over Russia flew a meteor, over the Vatican white smoke,
Bombings up in Boston, the stateless Snowden bloke.
Poison gas in Syria, floods in India in June,
The governmental shutdown, in the Philippines typhoon.

A new tenant in the White House?  Alas we were not so lucky,
At least the current occupant, appears increasingly lame ducky.
Like in many a second term, scandals now abound,
The yes we can agenda, has now sadly run aground.
Worried about big brother? You might be right my love,
The NSA can hack anything, except healthcare.gov.

Who left us this past year?  We wish them all Godspeed,

Farewell to Edward Koch, farewell now to Lou Reed.

Global statesmen left us too, men and women of high stature,

Goodbye Nelson Mandela, goodbye to Margaret Thatcher.

James Gandolfini we will miss you, and your softer side of crime,

Adios to Hugo Chavez, your revolution ran out of time.

In the markets year to date, we’ve had lots of steady action,
Your choice of asset class, has shaped your degree of satisfaction.
US equities won the race, all year they kept on sprinting,
Boosted by juicy steroids, also known as money printing.

Gold and bonds were laggards, causing their owners mental anguish, 

The Yen, Aussie, and Rupee, against the Dollar all did languish.

Among stocks there were big winners, that proved to be good picks,

The Facebook made a comeback, though not quite like Netflix.

Tesla hurt the shorts, cutting through them like a knife,

Other exhibits in that category, Green Mountain and Herbalife.

Losers have been scarce, in fact there are hardly any,

Blackberry and teen retail, and the flailing JC Penney.

And what about the macro, as we look out to fourteen?

Should we bet it all on bitcoin, to keep it in the green?

Across every class of asset, vol has disappeared like vapor,

The markets are complacent, worried not about the taper.

Remember you can’t go broke, with some profit taking,

Your smarts in this year’s rally, you should not be mistaking.

With those gains you can now harvest, let’s also do some giving,

There are still so very many, with a low standard of living.

Five years ago things were dismal, as the crisis was so dire,

Who imagined that so quickly, to new records we’d vault higher.

Be thankful this December, your health is just one reason,

Let’s think of those less fortunate, in this year’s holiday season.

Hedge Fund Man

Hedge Fund Man - by Peter Ort He's a PM and a trader He's got a signal turning green He's a restless young risk taker Wants to run the big money He's got no problem with his high fees And his lockup is secure He's cleaning up his network To keep his sources pure Learning to lower the beta of the Old World Man Learning to make the alpha like a New World Man He's bought some concentrated stakes And learned when to sell and apply the brakes He's old enough to know what options to write But young enough to confuse it He's noble enough not to take in too much cash But weak enough not to refuse it He's a Hedge Fund Man... He’s got activism fever Spin off your factories and farms He's a fighter and no stranger To the sell side and their charms He's got market timing power With quant models on patrol He's got to watch the advance/decline line And keep his risk control Trying to double the pay of the Old World Man Buying a Swiss chalet like a New World Man He's forgotten the drawdown of yesterday He knows a high water mark is here today He's noble enough to see his risk is not right But weak enough not to defuse it He's wise enough to raise a yard But fool enough to lose it He's a Hedge Fund Man... Learning to lower the beta of the Old World Man Learning to make the alpha like a New World Man He's a Hedge Fund Man... He's a Hedge Fund Man...

New World Man – by RUSH He's a rebel and a runner He's a signal turning green He's a restless young romantic Wants to run the big machine He's got a problem with his poisons But you know he'll find a cure He's cleaning up his systems To keep his nature pure Learning to match the beat of the Old World Man Learning to catch the heat of the Third World Man He's got to make his own mistakes And learn to mend the mess he makes He's old enough to know what's right But young enough not to choose it He's noble enough to win the world But weak enough to lose it He's a New World Man... He's a radio receiver Tuned to factories and farms He's a writer and a ranger And a young boy bearing arms He's got a problem with his power With weapons on patrol He's got to walk a fine line And keep his self-control Trying to save the day for the Old World Man Trying to pave the way for the Third World Man He's not concerned with yesterday He knows constant change is here today He's noble enough to know what's right But weak enough not to choose it He's wise enough to win the world But fool enough to lose it He's a New World Man... Learning to match the beat of the Old World Man Learning to catch the heat of the Third World Man He's a New World Man... He's a New World Man...

Year End 2012

Another year now ending, goodbye to twenty twelve,
Into events that have unfolded, let us briefly delve.
Some things didn't change, the status quo remaining,
Middle Eastern fighting, and tireless campaigning.
More borrowing and spending, debt burdens they did widen,
Thanks to our spendthrift leaders, Barack Obama and Joe Biden.
Not to be outdone, in the massive spending spree,
Was the Federal Reserve, launching unlimited QE.

What failed in the past year, amidst all the to and fro?
Exhibit A in that sad bucket, must be the Facebook IPO.
What else was a loser, on a transatlantic scale?
JP Morgan's prop trading, felled by a London whale.
Another bust of large proportions, leaving half the country cryin',
Was the GOP fall ticket, of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan.
The biggest setback of the year, was not at all man made,
A hurricane named Sandy, that did our coast invade.

To some we bid farewell, they left us all too soon,
Goodbye to Andy Griffith, goodbye Vidal Sassoon.
So long to Whitney Houston, she too has left the scene,
So long to Donna Summer, of disco she was queen.
Our ambassador to Libya, for him the nation grieves,
Dick Clark we’ll miss your countdown, on future New Year’s Eves.
Farewell to Neil Armstrong, to the moon you travelled far,
Farewell to Maurice Sendak, I hope you’re where the wild things are.

The state of our nation, is challenged at this time,
Pax Americana, may be beyond its prime.
Division reigns supreme, in our corridors of power,
Listen to our politicians, and you’ll want to take a shower.
Where can we find redemption, it lies somewhere within,
The better angels of our nature, not in some partisan spin.
Though challenges we face, resolution is within our reach,
It’s not like we must storm, some barricaded Normandy beach.

How to position your portfolio, into the year beyond?
Go short the equity market, stay long the 30 year bond?
The vol has been so low, across all the asset classes,
While the recovery we’re in, has been slow as molasses.
To offer some advice, if I may be so bold,
Don’t lend Uncle Sam your money, with his spending uncontrolled.
On one thing you can count, with regard to money making,
A bigger share in taxes, the government will be taking.

So let me wrap this up, with something more upbeat,
That you can share with friends, via text, email, or tweet.
There are better days ahead, that is my calm projection,
When will they come you ask, not till the next election.
Though winter has arrived, and outside it may be storming,
If you’re feeling wet and cold, relax the globe is warming.
At all your year end parties, make your cocktails strong and stiff,
And get ready for a tumble, off of the fiscal cliff.

October 2011

It’s October twenty eleven, in this year it’s getting late,
Your year-to-date performance, really hasn’t been that great.
The economy has softened, the stocks have been a mess,
Job growth has been anemic, banks again are under stress.
Let’s review what all has happened, the events that have transpired,
And perhaps we’ll understand, why this market’s uninspired.

The year started off all right, the stocks they climbed on higher,
On LinkedIn and Pandora, investors took a flyer.
Social media was all the rage, that quickly grew into a bubble,
Facebook, Groupon, Twitter, saw valuations quickly double.
In other asset classes, higher prices too were quoted,
Top ticking it in commodities, Glencore’s stock was gently floated.

As spring turned into summer, to higher highs we almost vaulted,
Until our slippery politicians, on our debt almost defaulted.
On both side of the aisle, they all found many they could blame,
What they found in less abundance, was a sense of any shame.
So in the early days of August, the risk rallies all were faded,
And our pristine credit rating, was deservedly downgraded.

And all the while in crusty Europe, across the wide and deep blue ocean,
A train wreck was developing, albeit in slow, slow motion.
Debt levels and GDP, had long ago inflected,
Sovereigns and banks alike, insolvency had infected.
The market had grown weary, of dear old Merkel and Sarkozy,
And of their silly euro games, of bailout ring around the rosy.

The exercises of policy makers, have been ones largely of futility,
Bringing back higher measures, of correlation and volatility.
Money managers to their benchmarks, have not come even close,
The biggest losers out among them, are Johnny Paulson and Bill Gross.
Big winners have been rare, good news scarce in performance reports,
Unless you bet it big on treasuries, or had those Chinese shorts.

Big worries they abound, the list just keeps expanding,
Deficits and unemployment, or an economic cold hard landing.
The masses they grow restless, they write about it as they tweet,
To organize their protest, and occupy Wall Street.
Obama’s a disappointment, you can see it in his approval rating,
For a decent GOP alternative, we’re still patiently awaiting.

So is there hope for our future, can we somehow persevere?
Will we get back our mojo, will our prosperity disappear?
Let’s take stock in our republic, in our continuous long term renovation,
And in our entrepreneurial spirit, best shown in Steve Jobs’ innovation.
And in the short term if you’re nervous, that the markets keep on wheezing,
Then doctor Ben Bernanke, will provide more quantitative easing.

January 2010 - A Decade In Review

And so we find ourselves at the start, of a decade that is new,
The one just ended wasn’t pretty, if you look in the rear view.
When it started in 2000, Nasdaq was climbing to new heights,
On its way beyond five thousand, where it was read its final rites.
The harsh road back to reality, crushed many a banker and VC,
With business plans and sock puppets, filling Sand Hill Road’s debris.

The tragedy of nine eleven, changed the mindset of a generation,
That we never forget that fateful day, is our eternal obligation.
Shortly after that disaster, we were greeted with many a business sham,
Kozlowski, Ebbers, Skilling, Rigas, up the river they all swam.
All the while Mr. Greenspan, kept on chopping at the rate,
Convinced was he that the risk, was that prices would deflate.
Recovery was soon at hand, as the markets all shot higher,
For any asset or derivative, there was many an eager buyer.

The silliness soon began, in the market for the housing,
Bidding wars were all too common, animal spirits were arousing.
A virtuous cycle was upon us, with many players in the game,
Home buyers, brokers, and appraisers, all proceeded without shame.
An Option ARM and a HELOC, will you please get down with the lingo,
If you want that beach house in Miami, with the cheesy pink flamingo.
Investment bankers always clever, sliced and diced the toxic paper,
The regulators and rating agencies, they blessed the shady caper.

And over in corporate America, things were heating up as well,
The buyout kings they were ascending, as their funds began to swell.
The nonsense soon was spewing, just as it was in the late eighties,
Lighten my covenants and toggle my PIK, as I drive off in my Mercedes.
Activists ruled the day, demanding buybacks and dividend recaps,
Any CEO who resisted, was shown the door or busted kneecaps.
And our governmental finances, how did they fare amidst this boom?
Deficits every year, it happens when you take in less than you consume.

The carry trade was running rampant, fueled by Japanese free money,
That some bought it for two and twenty, is somewhat sad and slightly funny.
The BRICs were off and running, and took on a life all of their own,
Impacting the status quo global order, the G7 they did dethrone.
And in so doing caused commodities, to go on an unrelenting climb,
The peak oilers said we would run out, in a short amount of time.
Correlations all were rising, as the world was busy flattening,
Ags became all the rage, as its citizens were busy fattening.

What marked the top of all the frenzy, what took us into the red zone?
Was it Cerberus buying Chrysler, or the public offering of Blackstone?
While Chuck Prince was still out dancing, and Jimmy Cayne was out back toking,
Liquidity was draining from the system, leaving many addicts choking.
Subprime mortgages were just the first, of many things that did implode,
The collapse of other asset classes, their meltdown did forebode.
The quants blew up rather early, despite their fancy qualifications,
Up in their ivory towers, they misjudged their peer group’s concentrations.

With the world around it melting, Wall Street still carried on denying,
Bogus concepts like decoupling, it persisted on supplying.
And then the old houses started falling, like a line of children’s dominoes,
Bear, Lehman, AIG, and Merrill, they all did decompose.
Even Morgan and mighty Goldman, were saved by the bank charter,
For the warmth of the TARP blanket, they were forced to go and barter.
With no more fear of moral hazard, the bailouts came quite quickly,
All you had to do was ask politely, and demonstrate that you were sickly.
To cap a heinous 2008, we learned of the Ponzi scheme of Madoff,
While millions of Americans, were being furloughed and laid off.

But to finish out the decade, it was time for a party in ’09,
Hosted by Ben Bernanke, serving potent monetary moonshine.
For appetizer zero interest rates, for dessert quantitative easing,
Speculators found his menu, extremely succulent and pleasing.
While the rally that we’ve seen, is salve for our financial cuts and gashes,
It’s just postponed our day of reckoning, and ensured further market crashes.
Unemployment, deficits, foreclosures, and your very large unfunded pension,
Are just a few of our collective problems, which I feel that I must mention.

So what comes next in this new decade, what’s in the cards and what’s in store?
At best some serious belt tightening, at worst a collapsing dollar and holy war.
How to prepare for these calamities, how to shield oneself from all this pain?
Learn to live with less, from gratuitous consumption please abstain.
Have faith in our America, this is the land of hope and dreams,
Built not by economic foolery, or no money down financial schemes.
Dig deep within your being, against our challenges now stand fast,
Let’s bid farewell to the decade of naught, and leave it resolutely in the past.

May 2009

As winter turned to spring and quick as a lightning flash,
We recovered from the losses and made back the ‘09 crash.
The sentiment and trend have both made sharp and sudden turns,
Giving the bears and shorts alike, horrific third degree burns.
Just a few short months ago, it all seemed so very dire,
The consumer had collapsed, the banks were all on fire.
Their wallets all were empty, their book values all had vanished,
Saving was in vogue, all consumption had been banished.
I remember it quite well, every night there on the tube,
They said the Fed’s work was in vain, and that Geithner was a boob.
As Citi’s stock broke through a buck, we looked on with much disgust,
Thinking TARP, TALF and P-PIP had all been such a bust.
The depression was upon us, it was getting very bad,
Except for Taleb and Roubini, we all were feeling very sad.

And then the thing it softly hit bottom, without making any sound,
At the moment that it happened, there were no bulls here to be found.
The rally it was false, a head fake we all said,
After all we knew full well, capitalism was now dead.
But it kept on going higher, day after day, week after week,
Although the macro stats and news flow were still looking very bleak.
Things were all still getting worse, just not quite as quickly as before,
A second derivative change helped the market set a floor.
The talk now everywhere is of sprouting new green shoots,
Only time it will reveal, the depth of their underlying roots.

The way the bulls tell us the story, things will end up being fine,
Nothing now can stop us, not even flu or plague from swine.
Ignore the prices of the houses, though they continue to be sagging,
Don’t sweat surging unemployment, an indicator that is lagging.
Obama and Bernanke will fix any problems that we have,
If your mutual fund is impaired, they’ll pass a bailout of your NAV.
If it’s Chrysler that’s gone bust, give it to the unions and Italians,
If it’s your strategy for Afghanistan, send in some more battalions.
Stimulus, healthcare and green energy, it all can be afforded,
Don’t worry if you haven’t saved a penny, you’ll be kindly well rewarded.
If the Chinese don’t buy more Treasuries and start puking all our dollars,
The Fed will print more just to buy them, those depressionary scholars.

And the bears think they know better, that they are wiser than an owl,
On this rally and economy, their advice would be ‘throw in the towel’.
They know this turn is just for suckers, for the money that is dumb,
The S&P’s going back to a six handle, that awful place we just came from.
Our households and our businesses still have much delevering to go,
Though our assets are declining, big debts we all still owe.
All the governmental actions just delay our day of reckoning,
Out on the near horizon, financial ruin it is beckoning.
Take no comfort from green shoots, which all will soon be withering,
Buy gold in heaps and bury it, this is no time to be caught dithering.

And as for me as an observer, what is my present opinion,
On this bull and bear debate, raging across this wide dominion?
As with many things in life, the answer’s somewhere in the middle,
There is no easy answer to our tangled financial riddle.
Did we overdo the leverage and create much false prosperity?
Did we put off many problems and leave them to posterity?
It’s clear the answer to these questions is a high conviction yes.
What’s more, we haven’t fixed the banks with recent tests of stress.
Yet there still are many things that give me hope for times ahead,
I do not sit around in fear of a future that I dread.
So bears stop hoping for no end, to our economic pickle,
And bulls take time to reassess, these rallies can be fickle.
Good luck to both sides of the coin, may you find alpha by year end,

Here’s to hoping we soon return, to days when beta is your friend.

Year End 2008

2008 can you please hurry up and end,
Perhaps skip right past Christmas, as we’ve no money left to spend.
We started out the year expecting just some regional recessions,
We’re finishing it out with bankers seizing our possessions.
Our assets and liquidity have all gone up in smoke,
Our equity has vanished, we’re simply just flat broke.
Jobless, homeless, hopeless are now words in our vernacular,
The failure of the system has been sadly quite spectacular.
So let us now review events, of this year that’s passed us by,
Disasters there were many, an unlimited supply.

Peloton crushed it in ‘07 and was everybody’s hero,
By February end their NAV had dwindled down to zero.
The Ides of March spelled doom, for the folks over at Bear Stearns,
For the investment banking model, we began having real concerns.
All year banks were going belly up, and July felled Indy Mac,
Though that was just a prelude, to September’s heart attack.
The first week of that grim month, brought Fan and Fred’s demise,
Trillions is how they measure, their impaired asset size.
Mother Merrill then decided, it must hook up with a mate,
BofA came courting, proposing marriage on the first date.
That was quickly followed by the fall of dear old Lehman,
Letting that one go, may prove to be Paulson’s demon.
Too big to fail returned, the following day with AIG,
Whose balance sheet was filled, with heaps of foul debris.
Wamu was close behind, with the biggest bust in banking history,
Where exactly TPG saw value, remains a shrouded mystery.
Wachovia was next, which Citi quickly lost to Wells,
Buying Golden West right at the peak, is one that really smells.

The hedge funds, how’d they navigate these failures I recite?
Poorly, in a word, since I’m keeping this polite.
Through June they rode real assets up a steep and soaring climb,
They shorted the financials, the dollar and subprime.
And then it all went sour, the bottom it fell out,
Commodities went down the toilet, and then turned into a rout.
The trades were all quite crowded, the unwind it was vicious,
The shorts were squeezed and banned, the margin calls malicious.
Leverage crushed the wise guys and so did net exposures,
Who knew the hedge fund beta was tied to home foreclosures?
The VIX broke right through eighty, as vols spiked through the roof,
Currencies fell to pieces, as the carry trade went poof.
Counterparties failed, the TED spread grew and grew,
Some lost big in the convertibles, some on Porsche/VW.
Money funds soon hit the skids, and some then broke the buck,
If you let Lehman rehypothecate, you sure feel like a schmuck.
It mattered very little, if you chose value, growth or GARP,
Nothing sustained a rally, not even Kashkari’s TARP.
As credit markets froze, for redemptions all were braced,
Side pockets became the home, for assorted toxic waste.
Drawdowns grew severe, at Glenview, Tosca and Spinnaker,
The victims of the carnage include Gendell, Dubin and Dinakar.

And the regulators, how’d they handle this mess that we’re now in?
Randomly, it seems, much to Dick Fuld’s chagrin.
Over weekends they did work, the dynamic duo Ben and Hank,
And pleaded on bended knee, to Pelosi, Schumer and Frank.
Through facility upon facility, they grew Fed’s balance sheet,
They accepted all collateral, from desperate firms across Wall Street.
“We’re all banks now” became the mantra if you wanted to be saved,
If you asked for their assistance, you found yourself enslaved.
Forget the leverage and the bonus, those days are now long past,
The last shall now be first, and the first shall now be last.
And the legacy of Greenspan, how will we remember him?
I’m sad to tell you Alan, it’s looking pretty grim.
Maestro we’ve now decided, was a terrible misnomer,
A Simpson seems more fitting, not Bart or Marge, but Homer.

Ah, it’s easy to point fingers, when we all share in the blame.
We all helped inflate the bubble, and did so without shame.
The leverage proved intoxicating, it felt just like a drug,
Any problems that developed, we swept under the rug.
Our nation became infected with the borrowing disease,
We shipped out all our dollars, to the Saudis and Chinese.
We all built the fancy houses, we each drove in a Hummer,
Not just Kravis and Schwarzman, but even Joe the Plumber.
And now we pay the piper, the repo man is at the door,
He’s asking for his money, we can’t defer him anymore.
And Bush up in the White House, asleep on the job in a pajama,
So disgusted all his countrymen, they picked some new guy named Obama.
Mr. President Elect, good luck to you with all these troubles,
Iraq, LIBOR, Depression, and the bursting of these bubbles.
So I’m sorry I’ve depressed you, but these straits are very dire,
I wish I had some words, with which I could inspire.
I suppose it could be worse, despite the big destruction of your wealth,
In this land hope still springs eternal, and you still have got your health.
Happy Holidays to you, I hope you spend it in good cheer,
Let’s raise the glasses up in unison, and hope for better come next year.